UFC 108 Predictions and Gambling Odds

Locks:
Gray Maynard
Jim Miller
Junior Dos Santos

This card is very evenly matched from top to bottom.  Most of the fights on this card could go either way.  There is some potential to make some money on this card, especially if you believe some of the more established fighters on it could be upset by some of the tough unsung fighters they are facing.  I went with the underdog on five of my thirteen predictions.

Rashad Evans -220 vs. Thiago Silva +175
Silva, at 15-1 is a very fast starter.  Only one of his wins has been by decision.  Ten of his wins are in the first round.  Evans has good boxing with quick hands, but I think he’s going to be outgunned in a slugfest.  But, I do believe he can win this one if he uses his wrestling combined with movement on his feet to wear Silva down.  That being said, I think Silva catches him with some big shots early in this one that Evans has a hard time recovering from.
Pick: Silva by TKO

 Gray Maynard -350 vs. Nate Diaz +250
Nate Diaz is very well rounded.  He’s got good standup, and is very dangerous on the ground.  I believe this is a bad style matchup for Diaz though.  Maynard has too much wrestling and strength for him in this one.  Expect him to grind out a decision win.
Pick: Maynard by decision

Paul Daley +105 vs. Dustin Hazelett – 135
This is an intriguing style matchup.  Hazelett at 15-4 is phenomenal on the ground.  As good as he is on the mat; Daley is that good standing up.  Hazelett could very well pull off the submission win in this one, but I think he will struggle to get it to the ground and get caught with some big shots before the referee steps in to stop this it.
Pick: Daley by KO
 

Junior Dos Santos -300 vs. Gilbert Yvel +220
This one has fireworks all over it.  It’s going to be a shootout. Both fighters like to bang and are very good on their feet.  I think Yvel has the edge standing up, and I believe Dos Santos will eventually take it to the ground where he will pound out a tko win.
Pick: Dos Santos by TKO

Brad Blackburn +130 vs. Amir Sadollah – 160
Blackburn is very underrated, while I believe Sadollah is a little bit overrated.  Blackburn hasn’t lost since dropping a 2007 decision to Mark Miller.  With wins over Jay Hieron, Ryo Chonan, Chris Wilson, and Pat Healy, I think Blackburn has what it takes to pull off the upset here.
Pick:  Blackburn by decision

Aaron Simpson -260 vs. Tom Lawlor +200
Simpson, at 5-0 is a future star in this sport.  He’s got very good wrestling and good standup.  Lawlor at 6-2 is coming off a win at 205 over CB Dollaway.  Lawlor’s good, but I believe Simpson is better.
Pick: Simpson by TKO

Jim Miller -500 vs. Duane Ludwig +350
Miller at 15-2 and 4-1 in the UFC is a grind it out type fighter with good submission skills.  I don’t think that bodes well for the 19-9 Ludwig in his UFC return.  Ludwig has very good standup, but I think he’s going to be fighting most of this one off his back.
Pick: Miller by submission

Joe Lauzon -300 vs. Sam Stout +220
Stout has only been finished once in the UFC, against Kenny Florian by submission.  He’s not an easy guy to finish and his standup is top notch.  I think Lauzon has enough firepower to grind this one out though.  I’m taking him in a close, hard fought decision.
Pick: Lauzon by Decision

Martin Kampmann -240 vs. Jacob Volkman +190
Training out of Minnesota Martial Arts, Volkman is the real deal.  Kampmann is coming off a tough ko loss to Paul Daley at UFC 103.  I like Volkman at +190.  I think he’ll control this fight, and win a decision.
Pick: Volkman by decision

Mark Munoz -400 vs. Ryan Jensen +300
Munoz, at 6-1 is a former NCAA wrestling champion.  His lone loss came by KO to Matt Hamill at UFC 96.   Jensen is 14-5 with all of his losses coming to high level opposition in Brock Larson, Thales Leites, Demian Maia, Joey Villasenor, and Wilson Gouviea.  Jensen also has some good wins on his record against Curtis Stout, Rob Kimmons, and Steve Steinbess.  He could definitely be worth a look at +300, and I think those odds are a little out of line.  I think Munoz’s wrestling will be the key here though.  Look for him to control this fight and probably win a decision.
Pick: Munoz by decision

Cole Miller -160 vs. Dan Lauzon +130
Lauzon, 12-2 lost his UFC debut to Spencer Fisher at just 18 years of age.  Since that loss, he has gone 8-1.  Now at 21, I think he’ll be better equipped in the UFC.  This is a solid, evenly matched fight.  Dan’s brother Joe tko’d Cole on season 5 of The Ultimate Fighter, but I think Dan will have to settle for a decision win.
Pick: Lauzon by decision

Rafaello Oliveira -180 vs. John Gunderson +150
Gunderson 16-5 is a UFC newcomer, but he has experience against good opposition.  Oliveira, 8-2 is coming off a loss to Nick Lentz at UFC 103.  Both of these fighters are good on the ground.  I see Oliveira pulling out the submission win in this one.
Pick: Oliveira by submission

Jake Ellenberger -140 vs. Mike Pyle +110
I’ve gone back and forth on this pick.  I can see Pyle pulling out the submission win, but I think Ellenberger’s punching power will be the difference in this one.  I see him catching Pyle at some point with some shots on their feet that he doesn’t recover from.
Pick: Ellenberger by TKO

Keith
-kpalmersports@hotmail.com

 As a trainer, he has fighters compete in Denmark, England, Germany, Japan, Canada and Mexico. He has had fighters compete on ESPN, Showtime, and pay per view televised events. He has promoted numerous MMA events, including an event at Conseco Field house that featured UFC veterans Chris “Lights Out” Lytle vs. Matt Brown.