UFC 107 Predictions and Gambling Odds

LOCKS: 

Palhares

Garcia

Wiman

Grant

 

BJ Penn (-275) vs. Diego Sanchez (+215)

Sanchez has two losses, both at 170 to AKA fighters Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck.  His best chance to win this one is by applying pressure and hoping that Penn will fade in the later rounds.  Although I think Sanchez will have some good moments later in the fight, I don’t believe it will be enough for him to get the nod in this one.  Penn has too many weapons.

Penn by decision

 

Frank Mir (-220) vs. Cheick Kongo (+180)

Kongo, 14-5 has 4 decision losses.  He hasn’t been submitted in his mixed martial arts career.  Although only two of Mir’s twelve wins are by decision, I don’t see him being the first to tap Kongo out.  Depending on which Frank Mir shows up, he should either win this one by decision, or possibly suffer a stoppage loss.

Mir by decision 

 

Clay Guida (+185) vs. Kenny Florian (-225)

Both fighters are coming off losses.  Guida by split decision to Diego Sanchez, and Florian to BJ Penn.  Four of Guida’s UFC bouts have had a split decision result.  Expect this fight to be close as well.  Because it’s going to be a grind it out type fight, Guida could be worth a look at +185.

Florian by decision

 

Jon Fitch (-500) vs. Mike Pierce (+325)

Pierce, 9-1 is coming of a decision win against Brock Larson.  Fitch, 20-3 has six decision wins in the UFC.  Bet on this one going the distance.  Pierce is a style nightmare for many of the welterweights in the UFC, but this is a tough matchup for him.  I’ve got a feeling this one will be close, with Fitch grinding it out.  If you’re willing to take a gamble, Pierce at +325 is a very live underdog.

Fitch by decision

 

Paul Buentello (+115) vs. Stefan Struve (-145)

This is a very intriguing matchup.  The giant 6’11 Struve is 2-1 in the UFC and 18-3 overall.  None of Struve’s wins are by decision. In fact, he’s never been the distance in a fight.  Fourteen of his wins are by submission.  Buentello at 24-10 is back in the UFC after a stint in Strikeforce.   I have a feeling this could be Struve’s first fight to go to the scorecards.  I can also see him finishing this one by triangle choke. 

Struve by submission

 

Rousimar Palhares  (-340) vs. Lucio Linhares (+260)

Palhares is 9-2 with wins over Ivan Salaverry and Jeremy Horn.  Linhares biggest win is over Sean Salmon.  That’s the difference here.  A 36 year old black belt fighting out of Finland,  Linhares is 13-4, with three of those wins being split decisions.   Three of his losses have come by ko or tko.  Expect Palhares to control this fight, and possibly win by stoppage. 

Palhares by TKO

 

Kevin Burns (EVEN) vs. TJ Grant (-130)

Grant is very good on the ground, with 12 of his 16 wins being by submission.  Both fighters are coming off losses.  Grant by decision to Dong Hyun Kim, and Burns also by decision to Chris Lytle.  Burns likes to stand and bang but is pretty well rounded.  Grant could pull out the submission in this one but I like him by decision.

Grant by decision

 

DaMarques Johnson (+205) vs. Edgar Garcia (-265)

Johnson is coming off a submission loss to James Wilks in the Season 9 TUF Finale.  Garcia, 7-1 with 5 ko’s, is coming off a controversial split decision loss to the very tough Brad Blackburn.  I expect Garcia to take this one by stoppage.

Garcia by TKO

  

Ricardo Funch (+325) vs. Johny Hendricks (-500)

Funch is an undefeated Brazilian fighting out of Massachusetts.  Hendricks, a 2 time NCAA wrestling champion is coming off a win over Amir Sadollah.  Expect Hendricks to grind this one out by decision, or get the TKO.

Hendricks by TKO

 

Matt Wiman (-340) vs. Shane Nelson (+260)

Nelson is coming off a decision loss to Aaron Riley.  Wiman with a record of 10 wins and 5 losses has only been finished once, by Spencer Fisher.  Wiman has faced much better opposition in his career.  Look for him to win a decision in this one.

Wiman by decision

 

Alan Belcher (-105) vs. Wilson Gouveia (-125)

Both of these fighters are coming off losses.  Gouveia to Nate Marquardt, and Belcher to Yoshihiro Akiyama.  All of Gouviea’s six UFC wins are by submission or ko.  This one has fight of the night potential, and could go either way.  I’m taking Gouveia.

Gouviea by TKO

 

By Keith Palmer

kpalmersports@hotmail.com

As a trainer, he has fighters compete in Denmark, England, Germany, Japan, Canada and Mexico. He has had fighters compete on ESPN, Showtime, and pay per view televised events. He has promoted numerous MMA events, including an event at Conseco Field house that featured UFC veterans Chris “Lights Out” Lytle vs. Matt Brown.